Contents
List of Figures, Maps, and Tables
Preface
1. Foundations
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Planning and the Future
- The Role of Assumptions
- The Politics of Projecting the Future
- The Promise of Scenario Planning
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Planning and the Public
- Planning for the Public
- Planning with the Public
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Planning Support Systems
- Simple and Complex Models and Methods
- Beyond Planning Support Systems
2. Welcome to Decatur
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Background Information
- Location
- History
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Population and Housing Information
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Employment and Occupation Information
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Land Uses
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Decatur Block Groups
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Land Use Information
- Population Density
- Racial and Ethnic Composition
- Household Income
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Population Pyramids
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Lorenz Curves
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Gini Coefficients
3. Trend Projection Methods
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Concepts and Terminology
- Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts
- Projection Terminology
- Trend and Share Projection Methods
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Trend Projection Methods
- Linear Curve
- Identifying the Best Fitting Trend Curve
- Geometric Curve
- Parabolic Curve
- Gompertz Curve
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Using Trend Curves
- Plotting the Observed Data
- Plotting the Projected Values
- Defining Growth Limits
- Combining Projections
- Evaluating Goodness of Fit Statistics
- Evaluating the DeKalb County and Decatur Trend Projections
4. Share Projection Methods
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Share Projections for One Area
- Constant-Share Method
- Shift-Share Method
- Share-of-Change Method
- Share-Trend Method
- Comparing the Decatur Share Projections
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Share Projections for Multiple Areas
- Constant-Share Method
- Shift-Share Method
- Share-of-Change Method
- Adjusted Share-of-Change Method
- Comparing the Decatur Block Group Projections
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Evaluating the Share Projection Methods
5. Cohort-Component Methods
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Demographic Trends
- Mortality
- Fertility
- Migration
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Cohort-Component Methods
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Hamilton-Perry Method
- Projecting the Female Population
- Projecting the Male Population
- Evaluating the Hamilton-Perry Projections
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Mortality Component
- Life Tables
- Computing One-Year Life Table Survival Rates
- Computing Multiple-Year Life Table Survival Rates
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Fertility Component
- Computing Age-Specific Fertility Rates
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Migration Component
- Residual Net Migration Estimation Methods
- Gross Migration Methods
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DeKalb County Cohort-Component Projections
- Projecting with Constant Rates
- Projecting Survival and Fertility Rates
- Projecting Net Migration Rates
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Evaluating the DeKalb County Cohort Component Projections
- Evaluating the Projected Population Trends
- Evaluating the Projected Population Change by Age and Sex
- Evaluating the Components of Population Change
6. Economic Analysis Methods
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Concepts and Definitions
- Establishments, Firms, Sectors, and Industries
- North American Industrial Classification System
- Estimating Missing Values
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Analysis Guidelines
- Selecting an Appropriate Geographic Scale
- Selecting an Analysis Period
- Ensuring Consistency
- Making Comparisons
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Analyzing Decatur’s Local Economy
- Decatur’s Aggregate Economy
- Decatur’s Industry Composition
- Decatur’s Industrial Specialization
- Location Quotients
- Decatur’s Occupations
- Shift-Share Analysis
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Projecting Decatur’s Economic Future
- Trend Employment Projections
- Constant-Share Employment Projections
- Shift-Share Employment Projections
- Share-of-Change Employment Projections
- Share-Trend Employment Projections
- Adjusted-Share Employment Projections
- Evaluating the Decatur Employment Projections
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Using Economic Projection Methods
- Using Ready-Made Projections
- Aggregation Level
- Economic Analysis and Other Planning Information
- Economic Futures and Scenario Planning
7. Spatial Analysis Methods
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Concepts and Terminology
- Geographic Information Systems
- Maps, Layers, and Features
- Feature Geometries
- Map Scale
- Map Accuracy and Metadata
- Map Dimensions
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Locating Spatial Features
- Postal Addresses
- Linear Referencing Systems
- Cadasters
- Geographic Coordinate Systems
- Projected Coordinate Systems
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Vector and Raster Data Models
- Vector Data Model
- Raster Data Model
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Analyzing Spatial Data
- Quantities, Categories, Ratios, and Ranks
- Creating Classes
- Choosing a Classification Scheme
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Analyzing Attribute Data
- Attribute Tables
- Types of Attribute Tables
- Attribute Measurement Scales
- Boolean Queries
- Venn Diagrams
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Analyzing and Representing Spatial Relationships
- Topology
- Topology Models
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Spatial Analysis Operations
- Buffering
- Overlays
- Polygon–Polygon Overlays
- Point-Polygon Overlays
- Line-Polygon Overlays
- Areal Interpolation
8. Land Suitability Analysis Methods
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Map Overlay Method
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Binary Selection Method
- Binary Selection Analysis of Decatur Flood Risks
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Ordinal Combination Method
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Weighted Combination Method
- Limitations of the Ordinal and Weighted Combination Methods
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Ordinal and Weighted Combination Analyses of DeKalb County Vacant Parcels
- DeKalb County’s Vacant Parcels
- Suitability Factors
- Ordinal Combination Analysis
- Weighted Combination Analysis
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Computing Standardized Suitability Scores
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Other Land Suitability Analysis Methods
- Fuzzy Overlay Methods
- Land Supply Monitoring
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Opportunities for Public Involvement
9. Using Planning Support Methods
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Use Graphs and Charts
- Types of Graphs and Charts
- Using Graphs and Charts
- Use Simple Graphs and Charts
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Use Maps
- Orienting Data Users
- Displaying Analysis Information
- Displaying Analysis Results
- Use Appropriate Map Options
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Document Assumptions
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Compare to Projections by Other Organizations
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Combine Different Information
- Combining Trend and Cohort Component Projection Information
- Combining Trend with Share Projection Information
- Combining Population Projections with Housing Information
- Combining Projections with Land Suitability Information
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Support Other Applications
- Land Use Planning
- Allocating Growth to Small Areas
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Use Scenarios
Planning Support Methods 